Complex Insight - Understanding our world

In this article, we will learn how to create a similar yet more customized plot using my favorite geovisualization package, Folium.I will also show you how to use the “Marker Cluster” feature of…...

If agent based systems and decision management solutions for complex systems are to be adopted in the commercial world - clear and transparent return on investment methods are needed. An awesome example from the spatial GIS world is King County, Washington (home of Seattle) has recently undertaken an in-depth look at the value that the county has received from their GIS investment. Professor Richard Zerbe from the University of Washington’s Center for Benefit-Cost Analysis conducted the study that spans from 1992 to 2010. The report totals the investment over this 18-year span at $201 million, and the benefits at $775 million.

The majority of human emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, with viruses that originate in wild mammals of particular concern (for example, HIV, Ebola and SARS). Understanding patterns of viral diversity in wildlife and determinants of successful cross-species transmission, or spillover, are therefore key goals for pandemic surveillance programs. However, few analytical tools exist to identify which host species are likely to harbour the next human virus, or which viruses can cross species boundaries. Here we conduct a comprehensive analysis of mammalian host–virus relationships and show that both the total number of viruses that infect a given species and the proportion likely to be zoonotic are predictable. After controlling for research effort, the proportion of zoonotic viruses per species is predicted by phylogenetic relatedness to humans, host taxonomy and human population within a species range—which may reflect human–wildlife contact. We demonstrate that bats harbour a significantly higher proportion of zoonotic viruses than all other mammalian orders. We also identify the taxa and geographic regions with the largest estimated number of ‘missing viruses’ and ‘missing zoonoses’ and therefore of highest value for future surveillance. We then show that phylogenetic host breadth and other viral traits are significant predictors of zoonotic potential, providing a novel framework to assess if a newly discovered mammalian virus could infect people.