Complex Insight - Understanding our world
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A few things the Symbol Research team are reading.  Complex Insight is curated by Phillip Trotter (www.linkedin.com/in/phillip-trotter) from Symbol Research
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Human Mobility: Models and Applications

From arxiv.org - November 5, 2017 6:51 PM

Recent years have witnessed an explosion of extensive geolocated datasets related to human movement, enabling scientists to quantitatively study individual and collective mobility patterns, and to generate models that can capture and reproduce the spatiotemporal structures and regularities in human trajectories. The study of human mobility is especially important for applications such as estimating migratory flows, traffic forecasting, urban planning, and epidemic modeling. In this survey, we review the approaches developed to reproduce various mobility patterns, with the main focus on recent developments. This review can be used both as an introduction to the fundamental modeling principles of human mobility, and as a collection of technical methods applicable to specific mobility-related problems. The review organizes the subject by differentiating between individual and population mobility and also between short-range and long-range mobility. Throughout the text the description of the theory is intertwined with real-world applications.

 

Human Mobility: Models and Applications
Hugo Barbosa-Filho, Marc Barthelemy, Gourab Ghoshal, Charlotte R. James, Maxime Lenormand, Thomas Louail, Ronaldo Menezes, José J. Ramasco, Filippo Simini, Marcello Tomasini


Via Complexity Digest
Phillip Trotter's insight:
This is a comprehensive review of mobility methods that are  essential for emergent models of disease, transportation, traffic and economics among other applications,. Worth reading.
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Mouse Colon Colonized with Human Microbiota

Mouse Colon Colonized with Human Microbiota | Complex Insight - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
From www.scientificcomputing.com - November 25, 2015 11:18 AM
This 63X photograph shows a mouse colon colonized with human microbiota. It won second place in the 2015 Nikon Small World Photomicrophotography Competition, which recognizes excellence in photography with the optical microscope and was taken using confocal microscopy.
Phillip Trotter's insight:

Its a small world - and a stunning photogaph. Examining occurances of microbiota and how they travel between species has a lot of implications for understanding healthcare and disease reservoirs. 

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The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena

From www.sciencemag.org - December 31, 2013 3:59 AM

The global spread of epidemics, rumors, opinions, and innovations are complex, network-driven dynamic processes. The combined multiscale nature and intrinsic heterogeneity of the underlying networks make it difficult to develop an intuitive understanding of these processes, to distinguish relevant from peripheral factors, to predict their time course, and to locate their origin. However, we show that complex spatiotemporal patterns can be reduced to surprisingly simple, homogeneous wave propagation patterns, if conventional geographic distance is replaced by a probabilistically motivated effective distance. In the context of global, air-traffic–mediated epidemics, we show that effective distance reliably predicts disease arrival times. Even if epidemiological parameters are unknown, the method can still deliver relative arrival times. The approach can also identify the spatial origin of spreading processes and successfully be applied to data of the worldwide 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic and 2003 SARS epidemic.

 

The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena
Dirk Brockmann, Dirk Helbing

Science 13 December 2013:
Vol. 342 no. 6164 pp. 1337-1342
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1245200


Via Complexity Digest
Phillip Trotter's insight:

This is an awesome insight that needs tested across other datasets to find out how universal it is. Good paper.

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A generalized model of social and biological contagion

From arxiv.org - July 31, 2017 12:50 AM

We present a model of contagion that unifies and generalizes existing models of the spread of social influences and micro-organismal infections. Our model incorporates individual memory of exposure to a contagious entity (e.g., a rumor or disease), variable magnitudes of exposure (dose sizes), and heterogeneity in the susceptibility of individuals. Through analysis and simulation, we examine in detail the case where individuals may recover from an infection and then immediately become susceptible again (analogous to the so-called SIS model). We identify three basic classes of contagion models which we call \textit{epidemic threshold}, \textit{vanishing critical mass}, and \textit{critical mass} classes, where each class of models corresponds to different strategies for prevention or facilitation. We find that the conditions for a particular contagion model to belong to one of the these three classes depend only on memory length and the probabilities of being infected by one and two exposures respectively. These parameters are in principle measurable for real contagious influences or entities, thus yielding empirical implications for our model. We also study the case where individuals attain permanent immunity once recovered, finding that epidemics inevitably die out but may be surprisingly persistent when individuals possess memory.

 

A generalized model of social and biological contagion
Peter Sheridan Dodds, Duncan J. Watts


Via Complexity Digest
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Ebola Virus Antibodies in Fruit Bats, Bangladesh - Volume 19, Number 2—February 2013 - Emerging Infectious Disease journal - CDC

Ebola Virus Antibodies in Fruit Bats, Bangladesh - Volume 19, Number 2—February 2013 - Emerging Infectious Disease journal - CDC | Complex Insight - Understanding our world | Scoop.it
From wwwnc.cdc.gov - August 23, 2014 8:23 PM
To determine geographic range for Ebola virus, we tested 276 bats in Bangladesh. Five (3.5%) bats were positive for antibodies against Ebola Zaire and Reston viruses; no virus was detected by PCR. These bats might be a reservoir for Ebola or Ebola-like viruses, and extend the range of filoviruses to mainland Asia.
Phillip Trotter's insight:

As evidence builds that fruit bats may be a vector for the recent ebola outbreak in Western Africa - I was reminded of this paper in CDC's EID journal which found 5 out of 276 (3.5%) tested bats in Bangladesh had antibodies to Ebola. It would be interesting to map ebola outbreaks against natural migration and deforestation paths and see if there is any correlation and to see how other regional antibody presence tests indicate migration as well. The original paper and the EID journal in general are well worth reading. Click image or headling to read more.

 

 

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