Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics

This is a fascinating insight into the Northern Irish economy, and the implications of the Northern Ireland protocol. Contrary to the prevailing wisdom that the protocol has damaged the region's economy, this article suggests that there are benefits, most notably for manufacturing employment, with job growth four times faster than the UK average. 

And still the Northern Ireland protocol problem remains. 

It's a privilege to be alive at this time, to watch the highest quality project management - from Brexit, to Test and Trace, to education and so on. 

Post-Brexit chaos? Who would have thought it - I will wager that some the documentation about the Northern Ireland protocol will be subject to the 30 year rule, because I suspect that senior figures in government have expressed the view that we should ignore the inconvenient aspects of it. And because they don't think the EU will kick up a fuss. 

And if it isn't recorded in any official minutes, I would bet that it's been said off the record. Anyhow - the bottom line is that uncertainty isn't good for trade. 

Is Northern Ireland about to see a relaxation of Brexit border controls and freer trade with the UK mainland? It seems that it's businesses are increasingly confident of this happening. 

This Newsnight clip looks at the problems associated with the Northern Ireland protocol, and the costs that this is imposing on Northern Irish businesses.

It's a messy part of the post-Brexit world, and it will be interesting to see if both parties are going to be able to manufacture a solution. Either way, it's already imposing significant costs on the internal market. 

Another for the costs of Brexit file - no-one could have predicted this sort of thing, could they?

A nice Reality Check on post-Brexit trade - frictionless, of course, apart from a decline in the amount of freight, an expectation of potentially worse to come, a shortage of customs agents, delays at ports, extra charges for online retail arriving from the EU, a slight decrease in the amount of business done in the City in the finance sector, and some problems in Northern Ireland. 

So, all in all, I'll let you make your own mind up.

Yet another entry to the already bulging costs of Brexit file - and a question. If large firms like Amazon are concluding that it's not worth bothering exporting certain goods to Northern Ireland, what are small firms going to conclude? 

Well, I never...

Who would have thought it? Me! 

Brexit means delays, and potential shortages, in this case in Northern Ireland.

And lest we forget, the Brexit clock is still ticking - with the Irish foreign minister suggesting that little progress is being made, not least over the question of the Irish border.

This is brought into sharper relief by a study by the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium which suggests that the cost of checks on Northern Ireland supermarket deliveries could exceed £100,000 per lorry. From frictionless trade to, well, quite a lot of friction. 

Surprise, surprise - just when you thought that there would be no border checks at UK ports for goods entering the UK from Northern Ireland, it seems that the government is already planning for that eventuality. 

It seems, remarkably, that the Prime Minister has been less than frank on this issue, and once again it goes some way towards highlighting the costs of Brexit.

The Guardian discusses the 'new' Brexit proposals for the island of Ireland: it concludes, surprise, surprise, that the plan is potentially very damaging.

Potential negative multiplier effect for Northern Ireland as Bombardier look to retrench and sell their Belfast plant. It will be interesting to see if there are going to be many bidders, and if so, what proportion of the 4,000 strong workforce are going to remain in employment.

The effect of Brexit has been to significantly boost cross-border trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Furthermore, whilst exports from the UK to Ireland have fallen there's been a significant boost to trade flows in the opposite direction. Who would have thought it? 

The largest gainers from Brexit haven't been the British.

The Northern Ireland protocol is looked at here, with President Biden seen as a chance to break apparent deadlock between the UK and the EU.  

I've gone early here, with an Observer piece that notes that there's been a substantial decline in freight passing through some of Britain's ports, notably those that connect with Ireland, such asHolyhead in North Wales. Similarly, Fishguard in South West Wales is also affected as firms look to either bypass the UK entirely or go direct to Northern Ireland via Liverpool or Cairnryan (Stranraer, effectively) to those of you not au fait with Scottish geography. 

The next result is putting jobs at risk in these places, and as the local member of the Welsh parliament notes, as many as 1,000 jobs in the area are dependent upon the port. 

Another obscure example of the costs of Brexit: UK tree producers have started to lose sales to Northern Ireland as people worry about whether or not they are going to be able to import trees as they used to. 

The impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland is laid bare in the Observer too - the implication being that the country has been sold down the river. 

Again, it's hard to imagine exactly what people thought they were voting for, if it wasn't this. 

Today's Brexit news highlights the fact that border checks in Northern Ireland have been suspended amidst safety fears. Frictionless trade. 

A practical illustration of the impact of Brexit, this article looks at the effect of Brexit on trade, with it now taking eight days to get EU carrots into Belfast. 

This is not a good thing - but I'm sure that it's just "teething problems"...

One for the costs of Brexit file - with news emerging that supermarkets in Northern Ireland struggling to import goods from Great Britain.

Who would have thought it? Well, lots of people apparently.

One for the costs of Brexit file: Marks & Spencer have announced that around 15% of their product lines may not be available in Northern Ireland in January. 

They won't be the last. And take heed - they're giving six weeks notice.

An unusual opportunity cost of Brexit, perhaps. This Guardian article suggests that Northern Irish businesses might look for compensation for Brexit arguing that they're going to incur significant additional costs. 

I'm not so sure that this will succeed, although it's a canny attempt to capitalise on the fact that the government has already shown willing to spend to keep people happy. If it does succeed, does this open the way for Leave voters to do the same in due course?  

The Prime Minister has said that a leaked Treasury document is wrong - in relation to the need for customs checks on trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of Great Britain. However, I'm sure I'm not the only one who finds it anything that he says scarcely credible. 

Either way, it points to yet more post-Brexit confusion, irrespective of Thursdays election result. 

Negative regional multiplier story - if Harland and Wolff closes that will have knock-on effects for the rest of the economy of Northern Ireland, at a time when the possibility of a no deal Brexit means that it is already under pressure.