Sentiment among finance bosses is rebounding as concerns about energy prices and Brexit ease.
Graham Watson's insight:
A Deloitte survey of the Chief Financial Officer of 70 large firms suggests that business confidence is rebounding, in line with revised forecasts about the prospects for growth from the IMF and EY, for example.
It's thought that with prices falling , inflation has peaked and there's even been progress on the Northern Ireland protocol, so despite the fact that growth will still be sluggish, things are looking up.
There had been talk an announcement could come on Tuesday, say Chris Mason and Jessica Parker
Graham Watson's insight:
I defy you to read this article without thinking many things. I started by reflecting upon the supposed "oven ready deal", and then thought about the absurdity of the Northern Ireland situation and the fact that the Leave campaign didn't have any sort of plan whatsoever for the post-Brexit world.
In short, what has Brexit achieved? In fact, what was it ever intended to achieve? It was a convenient project for a political chancer to create a plausible - although not to me - path for him to become Prime Minister. And it succeeded. And in return what have we as a nation gained?
Exporters fear Northern Ireland protocol row will spur trade war with Brussels, making an already difficult job even harder
Graham Watson's insight:
A snapshot of post-Brexit trade, with British exporters struggling to cope, and the prospect of the row over the Northern Ireland protocol implies that there could be even more restrictions to follow.
Exports are down across the board, most significantly with the EU, and the opportunity cost of dealing with existing regulations seems unlikely to go away.
Brussels vows to respond with ‘all measures at its disposal’ as Liz Truss sets out plan to make changes
Graham Watson's insight:
Wot larks, Pip!
The EU plans to use "all measures at its disposal" in response to UK moves to tear-up the Northern Ireland agreement. Whilst I've sympathy for the "If the facts change" line of argument, it would be easier to accept if the facts had actually changed.
Everyone, presumably bar the Prime Minister because it's self-evident he's never read any of the detail of these, could have forecast the fact that the Brexit deal was going to have this effect, and yet we signed it. Or partners did so in good faith. It's clear that we did simply to "Get Brexit done".
And yet, 6 years on from 2016, we still haven't - nor should we want to given the clear evidence of its adverse effect on the UK economy. So if you're going to peddle the "If the facts change" argument at all, you might pursue it to its logical conclusion.
Archie Norman backs UK plans to scrap parts of protocol, saying lorries require ‘700 pages of documents’
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems that Marks & Spencer are keen to see large parts of Northern Ireland protocol scrapped; I hesitate to think how they then are going to trust a government that is unwilling to honour its own promises.
After an initial shock to businesses, manufacturing jobs are growing four times faster here than the UK average
Graham Watson's insight:
This is a fascinating insight into the Northern Irish economy, and the implications of the Northern Ireland protocol. Contrary to the prevailing wisdom that the protocol has damaged the region's economy, this article suggests that there are benefits, most notably for manufacturing employment, with job growth four times faster than the UK average.
The biggest increase in trade in both directions was in food and live animals, data from the Central Statistics Office shows
Graham Watson's insight:
The effect of Brexit has been to significantly boost cross-border trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Furthermore, whilst exports from the UK to Ireland have fallen there's been a significant boost to trade flows in the opposite direction. Who would have thought it?
The largest gainers from Brexit haven't been the British.
Rules due to come into force on 1 January postponed as act of ‘good faith’, says Brexit minister
Graham Watson's insight:
The UK-EU dispute about the Northern Ireland protocol rumble on, with no end in sight. However, the UK has agreed to delay checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from Eire, in the hope of sustaining negotiations.
Oven-ready deal? Still defrosting, and likely to end up as a horrible mess is nearer the mark in my view.
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EU leaders urged to push back against No 10’s brinkmanship over role of European court of justice
Graham Watson's insight:
And just when you thought Brexit negotiations had finished - not unreasonably, given the protestations about the oven ready deal - it seems that there's the possibility of a UK-EU trade war over the inability to agree the Northern Ireland protocol.
Remarkably, the man responsible for negotiating it now seems to be on the brink of changing tack and asking for additional amendments. I don't know where these people come from; you just can't make it up.
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Minister says government will not ‘sweep away’ NI Brexit protocol, but renews demands for major changes
Graham Watson's insight:
Pathetic. Just pathetic. Man responsible for negotiating Brexit calls for major changes to Northern Ireland protocol. So why did you agree it then, and sign it and why did no-one else spot all of the potential problems?
Of course, we live in an era with the Prime Minister has no interest in the detail, and will have simply wanted to get Brexit done. One for the costs of Brexit file.
Brexit minister Lord Frost asks for ‘a bit of breathing space’ to negotiate deal and head off trade war
Graham Watson's insight:
Look at us, pleading for clemency over the finer details of a deal that we signed of on, having said it was oven-ready and a better deal than the one proposed by Theresa May,
Dreadful. The last bastion of the scoundrel, throwing ourselves at the EU in the hope of elliciting sympathy.
Businesses relieved after headaches of post-Brexit trade agreement – but there is still progress to be made
Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian has a look at the proposed successor to the Northern Ireland Protocol, and argues that its undoubtedly a step in the right direction, if only because it offers stability and certainty, although issues still remain.
The UK and the EU have reached a new deal over post-Brexit trade arrangements for Northern Ireland, sources on both sides tell the BBC. A senior UK government source says: "An agreement has been reached. The deal is done”.
PM Rishi Sunak has been meeting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Windsor to sign off on the agreement.
Graham Watson's insight:
The beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning. Or neither.
The UK and the EU have concluded a new deal to govern post-Brexit trading arrangements for Northern Ireland. But that's not really the interesting bit, now the fun really starts...
Editorial: Boris Johnson’s plans to shred the Northern Ireland protocol have no basis in law, economics or diplomacy
Graham Watson's insight:
One for the costs of Brexit file - I won't add much in the way of comment, other than suggest that it's been shown on a number of occasions that the Prime Minister has no regard for the rule of law - the prorogation of Parliament, Dominic Cummings Barnard Castle trip, partygate - so why should the Brexit treaty be any different?
The EU’s flexibility has been met by the UK government talking about scrapping the protocol and breaching international law, says Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s Tánaiste
Graham Watson's insight:
Leo Varadkar's take on the prospect of the unilateral scrapping of the Northern Ireland protocol. It is difficult to disagree with a word he says about how such a move imperils Britain's global reputation, and nice to see a statesman with dignity, rather than our own rather shambolic imitation.
As tensions build over Northern Ireland, concerns of an EU-UK trade war have surfaced.
Graham Watson's insight:
Is an UK-EU trade war on the cards? You would hope not, but when a Prime Minister appears on Channel 4 News and openly states that he didn't think that the EU were going to enforce the Northern Ireland protocol, you can hardly blame our trading partners for thinking we were negotiating in bad faith.
Foreign secretary repeats threat to scrap parts of Brexit deal, saying it is a matter of ‘peace and security’
Graham Watson's insight:
I'll leave this here, with relatively little comment. My only observation is the following: if you've negotiated an international treaty with your trade partners ostensibly in good faith, and then because it's not working how you'd like it to, is it ethical to unilaterally scrap it.
DUP’s Edwin Poots says he has ordered top civil servant to stop port checks, but not clear whether he will comply
Graham Watson's insight:
And yet more Brexit fun, as the Northern Ireland agriculture minister, Edwin Poots, has unilaterally suspended checks on food entering the country, contrary to the terms of the Northern Ireland protocol.
It will be interesting to see the next move: bear in mind that for all Mr.Poots' claims that he's sought legal advice, he's also renowned for his extreme religious views, believing that the world is around 7,000 years old - rejecting the Big Bang theory and the theory of evolution. Thus, I wouldn't give his view of what is/is not legal in this context much credence.
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Maroš Šefčovič attempts to end tussle at press conference but ‘big gap’ remains to UK’s demands
Graham Watson's insight:
From chicken to an oven-ready Brexit deal - or rather a still partially frozen deal that still requires finishing off.
It seems that the EU is going to scrap 80% of Northern Ireland food checks, but is fully prepared for the UK government to reject this. It's a pity that those people who negotiated and hailed a 'great' Brexit deal can't be held accountable...
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Analysis: mutually-agreed temporary fix is welcome but both sides have very different views of way forward
Graham Watson's insight:
Ah, the Northern Ireland protocol. So easy to wave through, so difficult to fix.
This article hints at the nub of the issue. We negotiated and voted through a deal that we've now decided that we don't like. So, of course, it's our 'opponents' fault that we're left lumbered with it.
Unless, like me you think that we couldn't be bothered working through the implications of a deal before we initially approved it.
This whole debate tells me something about responsibility and accountability, and I would argue it tells me something fairly significant about the government's approach to these issues too.
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A Deloitte survey of the Chief Financial Officer of 70 large firms suggests that business confidence is rebounding, in line with revised forecasts about the prospects for growth from the IMF and EY, for example.
It's thought that with prices falling , inflation has peaked and there's even been progress on the Northern Ireland protocol, so despite the fact that growth will still be sluggish, things are looking up.