Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics

One for the costs of Brexit file, with data suggesting that UK food exporters have incurred extra costs selling to the EU, equivalent to £170m since 2019. This is clearly inefficient and it's also going to significantly reduce both profit margins and their incentive to sell to our closest trading partners. 

However, the distributional effects of this are most heavily concentrated upon SMEs who lack the resources to cope with the increased red tape and have invariably stopped exporting to the EU rather than incur these costs and this is desperately sad. 

The cost of living crisis laid bare in a familiar form: trade-offs. Food or energy, that's the choice for the most vulnerable. 

And looking at the data you can see why. Those people on pre-payment meters can expect to pay £700 more for their energy this year. And in return the government has given them a £150 Council Tax rebate and £200 towards their energy costs, that's not a rebate because it will be offset against future price rises. Bearing in mind the number of households with no savings, it strikes me that many more people are going to be experiencing poverty this year. 

I'll leave this here - one for the costs of Brexit file, I feel. 

However, food and drink exports have plummeted, by 16% overall, driven by a 24% decrease in sales to the EU - with a 50% decrease in exports to Spain.

The Food and Drink Federation are looking for improved relations between the UK and its largest trading partner in an attempt to help the sector recover. 

Oh dear, oh dear! 

I can hardly bring myself to comment, but this makes for dreadful reading. 

The Food and Drink Federation have told MPs that food costs are going to rise in the wake of Brexit: it's Chief Executive, Ian Wright noted that "In the short term there will be costs and time wasted for supply to reach the shelves, and in the long term will be costs and changes, and fairly significant changes, to the way in which manufacturers in the UK and in the EU interact when they are producing product".

So where are the benefits? I don't see many right now. 

Don't say you haven't been warned - a no-deal Brexit is likely to have dramatic effects upon the price of food. And if pensioners, who largely voted for Brexit, are genuinely poor, it would seem that they're going to be the first to suffer...

I wonder if they voted for that.

Brexit. It just keeps giving - or taking - depending upon your point of view.

Just read this and weep.

Has it come to this? Yes. Apparently.

Brexit is a threat to the UK's food and drink firms. Who on earth could have predicted that? 

The extent to which the cost of living crisis has impacted upon the poor is made clear, with the Money Advice Trust estimating that 20% of adults are behind on their bills and that nearly 5 million people have gone without food to meet their energy bills. 

And here's the reality of Brexit for food and wine producers - paperwork, combined with ongoing supply chain difficulties. Are either of these things going to make our food cheaper? 

Costs of Brexit anyone? 

The Observer wishes us all a happy Brexmas, using this article to detail where there might be shortages this Christmas, taking in Christmas trees, alcohol, toys and food. To be fair, it looks at the worst case scenario, and suggests that we'll get by...

Costs of Brexit anyone? The first data set for monthly exports of good to the EU is in and there have been precipitous decline in food and drink exports, notably whisky, cheese and chocolate. All of which must mean that John Redwood's diet is getting somewhat samey, given that he seems to think that if Europeans aren't buying our produce we should buy more of it. 

Does he not appreciate that we've not bought it previously because we don't want it, and that if we don't want it at a higher price, it generally doesn't mean that there's going to be significant increase in quantity demanded at a lower price. 

Brexit contingency plans - read them and weep!

That's quite a big opportunity cost, right there.

First it's the car industry, then it's the food industry. Is anyone happy with Brexit?

Apart from the media obviously. What will they do after 29 March?

More seriously, some of the biggest players in the food industry are threatening to stop co-operating on government policy consultations because the threat of a no-deal Brexit means they're too busy engaged in making contingency plans.

More good Brexit news. One of the country's biggest port owners, Stena Lines, is suggesting that Brexit is going to disrupt food imports.

Stock up, then. 

More insights into the likely effects of Brexit, food prices are likely to rise - and food security is likely to be compromised.