Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics

The British Retail Consortium's latest data regarding footfall suggests that there was a 5.7% fall in comparison with the corresponding period last year. However, yet again, we've another one of those 'it was the weather' excuses to try and explain this away.

I'm not sure you can attribute a 5% plus fall in footfall to the weather alone, can you?

A snapshot of the retail sector suggests that yesterday saw an improvement on last year's Good Friday, but that shopping habits haven't returned to pre-pandemic levels. So, encouraging but hardly grounds for celebration.

It seems that retail is going to continue to be hit - with the latest data suggesting that footfall is down a third on 2019, and a number of sectors have made the switch to greater online selling.

Will the sector recover to pre-COVID levels, and, if not, what are the implications for the cafes and restaurants located in urban areas? 

Ah! The bounce-back, the pent-up demand - apparently retail sales are going to rebound come the 12 April. I will believe it when I see it. 

The latest data, though, suggests that footfall hasn't fallen as dramatically as it did during the first lockdown. 

Interesting little footnote - last week saw a fall in footfall on Britain's High Streets as schools returned. However, it is always the case that the first week after schools returned see this; the issue is that the drop - of over 6% - was higher than in previous years.

Alternate views of the High Street. In the first place, the British Retail Consortium, arguing that city centres are hanging on by a thread, with continued low footfall and a shift to online retail adversely affecting sales and making it hard for firms to cover their costs.

Data from Kantar highlights the fact that the number of supermarket shopping trips in the UK has declined after the introduction of the face-covering rule, with 2 million fewer visits made after it was introduced. 

Equally, the move towards online shopping has increased, accounting for 13.5% of all supermarket shopping, a figure that surprises me. I'd have thought that it would have been more. 

The latest retail data - and the number of retailers announcing job losses - isn't very encouraging. A near 40% decline in footfall doesn't make for good reading, and going forward a V-shaped recovery doesn't seem likely at present. 

The FT article looks at some unusual statistics to track the coronavirus recovery - and gives some detail of the sectoral differences in the UK economy as lockdown is eased. It makes for a fantastic start to the day. 

What is perhaps most alarming has been the decline in hiring, with all sectors seeing precipitous falls in job vacancies, and, it seems, little prospect of a full recovery in the short- to medium-term.

The latest retail sales figures paint a bleak picture, and a picture that highlights changed shopping habits. 

Sales down over 18%, with precipitous declines in clothing sales, and a sharp uptick in online retail, as the number of visitors to bricks-and-mortar retailers fell by 80%.

Ouch.

It seems to be the case that July's retail data isn't going to be great: if it's not Bank Holidays, it's the weather and a wet July has apparently reduced footfall on the High Street which isn't great news for the economy. 

I don't really know where to put this 'scoop' but I'd like it to be somewhere - it's a nice example of how unusual data sources reveal interesting things. In this case, it's mobile phone data that seems to suggest that there's been a significant change in footfall patterns in High Streets as a result of changed working patterns. 

As a result, some seaside town centres are seeing higher footfall and that's good for those communities. It would ,however, be nice to square this particular circle by looking at the impact of changed working patterns on productivity. 

It seems that this weekend is going to be a bumper one for retail: the sun will be out, lockdown will have ended and it will give us an insight into the extent to which the economy will make a recovery.

Footfall is up, sales are up and it seems to be the case that market towns rather than cities centres have been the fastest to recover. It is particularly interesting to see the Payments Director at Lloyds Bank use the term "pent-up demand". Has she been listening to the Chief Economist, I wonder?  

Despite concerns about social distancing footfall in Britain's retail centres is still down. Christmas looks bleak this year.

On the other hand, this...

Although, if you read the article carefully, you'll note that sales in its city centre, flagship stores have tanked.

Just beautiful: this Guardian article looks at what has happened to Britain's high streets as a result of lockdown, showing which shops remained open, and have stayed open, and which shops remain closed. It looks at a number of examples, from across the country and is the best visual illustration of the effect of the pandemic.

And still they come: expect many more of these stories in the weeks and months to come. M&S is cutting 7,000 jobs citing a "material shift in trade". It seems highly likely that other retailers will follow suit, if they haven't already. 

Changing consumer tastes, and a decline in high street footfall will be driving this.

Retail sales have picked up in June - but not by a massive amount, despite the headline - and the British Retail Consortium have seen signs of footfall picking up. But not quickly. 

The first figures for the retail sector in June suggest that the easing of lockdown has yet to have its full effect - with footfall remaining far lower than in 2019. 

It will be interesting to see how long it takes for the sector to recover - and I suspect that there will continue to be casualties along the way. 

I've already commented on this data - but High Street footfall hasd fallen to its lowest level since 2008, as changing consumer tastes have shifted people online in the search for bargains. 

Not good news for growth, I suspect.