Hospitality trade says chancellor failed to help save sector with VAT cut, while travel industry laments air duty rise
Graham Watson's insight:
A lukewarm reception for the Budget from the business community with hospitality and travel, in particular, left dissatisfied with their lot. It seems that the former were pinning their hopes on a VAT cut and a cap on business rates increases and the latter feel that higher Air Passenger Duty is ill-conceived.
James Cleverly’s measures are not popular with health and hospitality
Graham Watson's insight:
The announcement of visa restrictions, and the prospect of lower inward migration isn't universally popular, and here the hospitality and health sectors voice their concerns. They argue that they are already experiencing labour shortages, and that these measure will only make things worse.
And as for the notion of nominative determinism? I'm afraid I don't see it applies to the current Home Secretary.
Some fear they will have to close or offer a reduced service when they should be at their busiest.
Graham Watson's insight:
This BBC clip highlights the challenges facing the hospitality sector in tackling labour shortages, with different firms finding different solutions to their problems.
It's interesting to see that it's not just a case of offering higher wages - business are having to change their practices, and, in some case it's immigration that's required to fill the skills gap.
With inflation as high as it is, "there are benefits to having workers come in", the institute says.
Graham Watson's insight:
IMF Chief Economist, Gita Gopinath, has suggested that higher levels of immigration might help keep UK inflation low. How dare she state economic sense!
Why is UK inflation higher than other G7 nations? Well, I'd have though that one very obvious reason is that the number of migrant workers in the UK has fallen post-Brexit and that this has put upwards pressure on wages, in some sectors more than others.
I doubt that hospitality and retail businesses will disagree with this assessment.
Consumers also focused on discount stores and dined in more in February amid cost of living crisis
Graham Watson's insight:
The impact of the cost of living crisis on consumer spending is evident in the changing level of pattern of expenditure - curiously spending has risen, but increasingly consumers are looking at second-hand goods or discount stores and eating out has also fallen.
It's what economic theory would predict - a simple application of YED - but in a macroeconomic context.
Brexit brought the biggest shift in UK’s immigration regime in a generation, as free movement of people from the EU ended
Graham Watson's insight:
Another cost of Brexit features in the Guardian, with the decline in migrant workers highlighted here, particularly in the hospitality sector. However, for all the current pain, is the future more optimistic?
Some believe that being no longer able to rely on cheap labour will force firms to think about boosting productivity by increasing investment, although there's little immediate evidence of this. Secondly, it might be the case that inward migration for low-paid, relatively low productivity jobs is going to be superseded by migrant workers having medium to high skill levels, to the extent that Jonathan Portes, not a renowned Brexit supporter, has come to believe that the net effects of post-Brexit migration policy might be positive.
There are fewer banks and shops but beauty parlours have prospered, BBC analysis of data has found.
Graham Watson's insight:
This is a really interesting bit of economic geography, with BBC correspondent, Mark Easton, looking at how the High Street has changed post-coronavirus..
After lockdown closures, supply and staffing issues, inflation and high energy bills could be fatal for many businesses
Graham Watson's insight:
The hospitality sector is, once again, under the pump with the sector forecasting a 'tidal wave' of closures, not least because of the extent to which energy prices have risen and threatened all sorts of hospitality businesses - pubs, restaurants and independent shops
A growing number of businesses, especially in construction and hospitality, are in a critical position.
Graham Watson's insight:
Insolvence firm Begbies Traynor report that there's evidence that an increasing number of firms, in construction and hospitality especially, are in danger of going out of business.
Another indicator that the economy is currently is a bit of a spot.
Hospitality, leisure and travel businesses feel impact of Covid variant in January
Graham Watson's insight:
The latest PMI data paints a mixed picture of the UK recovery, with hospitality, leisure and travel all suffering but manufacturing seemingly overcoming some of the supply-side bottlenecks that have held it back. We're not out of the woods yet, it would seem.
From pubs to hair salons, calls for more financial support as owners blame mixed Covid messages
Graham Watson's insight:
And this article details the extent to which hospitality, hair dressing and the live venues have already been affected by the latest surge in coronavirus and the mixed messages relating to the need to curtail social activity.
Nightclubs, restaurants and shops could be hit by new Covid curbs, but many firms are well placed to cope.
Graham Watson's insight:
The BBC looks at the prospects for the economy with the imposition of Plan B restrictions and the injunction to work from home. It makes for interesting reading in as much as the data from the second lockdown tells us that the effect on growth was one-fifth of that of the first lockdown, so, overall, the impact on growth shouldn't be catastrophic.
However, the sectoral impact will vary massively: for those businesses that have seen a shift to working from home, there will be little impact. For sectors such as hospitality, this will be a significant blow - with pubs, for example, making up to a third of their annual revenue in the pre-Christmas period.
Equally, yesterday's news also drove the pound lower against the dollar which also has macroeconomic implications.
As inflation hits 10-year high, Covid-hit sectors are sounding the alarm on spiralling prices
Graham Watson's insight:
A look at how higher inflation is percolating into all sectors of the economy: farming, transport, hospitality and retail sectors are all feeling the pinch.
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Rise in salary requirements will further fuel staff shortages in industry that relies on skilled migrant workers
Graham Watson's insight:
This article looks at the implications of the government's immigration policy for the hospitality sector, arguing that the rise in salary requirements to get a visa will have significant adverse implications for the sector, further increasing labour shortages and, no doubt, costs.
It will be a sad day were this ever to affect the Woking branch of Pizza Express.
Inflation-linked increase next year would be ‘final nail in the coffin’ for many businesses, trade bodies warn
Graham Watson's insight:
A quick look at an issue that is a perennial concern of businesses - the business rates system. At present, the fact that business rates are index-linked means that they are likely to leap next year to the extent that it imperils the survival of a number of businesses and is passed through in the form of higher costs to consumers, potentially sustaining inflation.
Factor in the loss of state support for some sectors, and it represents the perfect storm for some sectors of the economy, notably hospitality.
GDP rose by 0.2% in April, with rising car sales and reduced impact of strikes also playing a part
Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian take on today's growth figures - highlighting the contribution of the hospitality sector to April's 0.2% growth. However, the ONS has also warned that there are some worrying signs in the construction sector, with a slowdown in the sector - so the picture is more mixed than might be the case.
Extra 100,000 visitors expected amid £1bn lift for UK hospitality in May helped by coronation, bank holidays and Eurovision
Graham Watson's insight:
Positive regional multiplier effect anyone, from Liverpool's hosting of the the Eurovision Song Contest? Factor in the plethora of Bank Holidays and it seems that it should be a good month for the hospitality sector.
New year bookings at bars and restaurants are down due to rail strikes and price rises, industry experts say.
Graham Watson's insight:
Presumably the last BBC business post of the year focuses on the impact of the cost of living crisis on the hospitality sector, and the New Year's Eve celebration. In short, we're all cutting back and the hospitality sector, in particular, is suffering.
Action ‘could cost hospitality sector £1.5bn in lost sales’ in peak season as it continues to struggle with rising costs
Graham Watson's insight:
Another blow for the hospitality sector, with rail strikes arguably going to cost the sector £1.5bn with a slew of cancellations, at a time when restaurants are already struggling.
That and the prospect of households reining in their spending during a cost of living crisis mean that the short-term looks bleak.
Many high street chains are putting up their menu prices as they struggle to heat premises, retain staff and pay for supplies
Graham Watson's insight:
The cost of living crisis explained in terms of its impact on leading restaurant and cafe chains - prices up across the board, with Nandos seemingly the group that has changed its prices by the greatest amount.
Pubs, hotels and restaurants experienced fastest fall in output of any UK sector on Lloyds tracker
Graham Watson's insight:
Hold onto your hats - the latest data suggests that the hospitality sector is declining at its fastest rate since the lockdown, according to Lloyds tracker of economic activity.
That said, five of the 14 sectors followed have reported growth in September, but that's nowhere near a majority, and if you believe it's a leading indicator, then it doesn't suggest that economic growth is going to pick up any time soon.
Fuller’s chief thinks Monday will be ‘trigger point’ for revival as plan B eases and Dry January ends
Graham Watson's insight:
Is there light at the end of the tunnel for the hospitality sector: certainly UK pubs are hopeful that drinkers will return to them from Monday, with the end of Plan B restrictions.
As result of the last lockdown, the Omicron lockdown, pub sales were down by 12% relative to pre-pandemic levels but nearly 25% in London, and the sector are hoping for a reduction in VAT on hospitality.
Spread of variant and government guidance to work from home led to painful losses by year end
Graham Watson's insight:
The extent to which the coronavirus pandemic has adversely affected the hospitality sector is laid bare in the Guardian article that highlights the second 'lost' Christmas - and potentially £3bn in lost sales.
Factor in a pre-Christmas slump and some firms are worried about their ability to see out the first quarter of 2022, and, of course, this has implications for economic growth.
Analysis: Ill-timed US trip and reluctance to turn bailout taps back on could tarnish chancellor’s carefully polished image
Graham Watson's insight:
Not much in the way of theory but a fascinating look at policymaking in the current environment and the issues that divide the Prime Minister and the Chancellor.
The other thing of note is the fact that we might be looking at another form of furlough scheme, even if only for the hospitality sector, although it seems as though the Treasury are doing their level best to avoid this.
The Parkers Arms in Lancashire is fully booked for Christmas but its owner fears new variant could flatten festive spirit
Graham Watson's insight:
A fairly blunt assessment of the implications of another lockdown for the hospitality sector in today's Guardian, with one Lancashire pub speaking for all in the sector.
Another Christmas lockdown would be difficult to take, given the sector's reliance on this time of year for revenue.
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