The boss of the UK's largest business group will urge politicians to be "practical" about immigration.
Graham Watson's insight:
The CBI Annual Conference is in Birmingham this week and the Director-General, Tony Danker, is using the platform to argue that one of the biggest problem we currently face is an ongoing labour shortage, and that it can be solved by allowing for increased immigration.
In the first place, you might think about the AD-AS implications of this - as well as the most obvious cause of this.
The move will not solve the UK's shortage of qualified drivers, says a leading EU haulage chief.
Graham Watson's insight:
I heard this gentleman on the Today programme this morning: he seemed unconcerned about the prospect of a large number of EU lorry drivers departing on 3 month contracts to the UK.
And understandably so - the last time they were here, they spent Christmas parked on disused airfield in Kent - and the EU also has a driver shortage - so how the relaxation of visa restrictions really is going to solve the labour shortage is anyone's guess.
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The meeting is discussing supply problems at petrol stations across the country and the shortage of lorry drivers.
Graham Watson's insight:
There's very much a hint of "nothing for you to see here, officer" about this meeting, although the presence of such a cross-departmental team rather gives the lie to that.
The fact is the grim reality of the situation is that we are currently 100,00 lorry drivers short - and a few service personnel and speeding up testing isn't going to help in the short-term, or the long-term to be fair.
Yes, wages are creeping up but the average lorry driver is white, male and 55, and I don't detect 1000s jumping at the prospect of a life on the road. So we're stuck: there's no quick way to increase supply, nor increase supply elasticity. Hold onto your hats.
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Ever-worsening conditions in supply-chain jobs have made Britain’s shortages inevitable, and a pay rise for lorry drivers won’t end them, says the Guardian’s special correspondent Felicity Lawrence
Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian's Felicity Lawrence suggests that the current supply chain issues are not a short-term phenomenon and date back to technological change and shifts in working patterns. As a result, certain types of job, such as HGV drivers and harvesting fruit and vegetables, are no longer appealing and shortages in these areas simply reflect workers voting with their feet.
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Fewer than 25% intend to lure new recruits with better wages despite challenges, CIPD report shows
Graham Watson's insight:
It's interesting to read this article - and whether or not economic theory holds. Despite labour shortages in certain sectors of the market, it seems that relatively few firms are planning to raise wages. Why?
Surely this contradicts economic theory - a shortage drives up wages surely?
This highlights a common criticism of microeconomic theory: that it fails to take context into account. I suspect that firms are working on the premise that the winding down of the furlough scheme and the ending of the temporary uplift to Universal Credit will drive workers into accepting jobs at the existing wage rate.
The government mulls how to deal with a lack of drivers amid warnings of food supply problems.
Graham Watson's insight:
One for the costs of Brexit file - you might have noticed those odd moments where your local supermarket is missing goods that it usually stocks.
The cause may well be a shortage of lorry drivers, directly caused by Brexit. As a result, the government have started to look at a short-term visa scheme for lorry drivers. If only we had previously been able to attract drivers, or other workers to sectors that were experiencing labour shortages as a result of EU membership.
Rush to reopen and departure of overseas workers have caused problems in areas including transport, hospitality and construction
Graham Watson's insight:
It seems as though the UK economy is struggling to find workers to fill the available vacancies - with the departure of overseas workers, in particular, responsible for this.
This is worth a read - it gives some interesting insights into the current state of the labour market and the macroeconomic implications of this.
Rishi Sunak should think again as scheme will be badly missed by businesses in hardest-hit sectors
Graham Watson's insight:
Richard Partington in the Guardian writes about the possibility of extending the furlough scheme arguing that there's a case for extending it because ending it in September will expose the most vulnerable sectors in the economy to the greatest risk of collapse, notably in hospitality. It's worth a read - not that I'm necessarily convinced by the arguments.
Figures from the jobs website Indeed expose the impact on employers as they struggle to recruit staff
Graham Watson's insight:
There have been a number of sectors of the UK economy that have raised concerns about labour shortages: this article looks at one of the major contributory factors - a 36% decline in the number of EU workers looking for work in the UK.
You should be able to discern a number of likely effects: on wages in given labour markets, and potentially on inflation, as well as the macroeconomic effects upon Britain's supply-side and how this might affect AD-AS analysis.
Experts say recovery at risk amid sharp fall in EU workers and dwindling interest in UK jobs from abroad
Graham Watson's insight:
And now the bad news: it seems that the UK recovery could be stymied by a lack of workers. With employers starting to hire at the fastest rate in nearly a decade, a shortage of EU workers might hinder any potential growth rebound.
It seems that job searches from Western Europe have halved since February 2020, and this might mean that finding the right workers proves increasingly problematic.
Average weekly earnings record the biggest rise since November 2008.
Graham Watson's insight:
The latest unemployment data shows a marginal increase in the rate of unemployment, but within the error margin; however, there is evidence that wage growth is picking up, and this has various implications.
Pay growth appears good for workers, but what is driving it? It certainly isn't productivity gains, so is it labour shortages in certain sectors, and if so, then this is likely to be a bad thing.
It just makes you wonder what's around the corner...
A generation of British builders are getting closer to retirement, leaving the UK increasingly more reliant on EU labour.
Graham Watson's insight:
Another Brexit article, with the Telegraph warning that the retirement of a generation of British builders has implications for the size and quality of the labour force in the construction sector.
And if the Telegraph is saying this, then you can be sure that this represents a significant problem that Brexit has created. We can't have retired sergeant-majors in Lewes waiting 6 months for their conservatories to be built, can we?
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A shortage of drivers has disrupted supply chains and fuel deliveries, with vehicles queuing for petrol.
Graham Watson's insight:
Principles, be damned.
It seems that the HGV driver shortage is going to be solved by the government launching a temporary visa scheme. Ho, ho.
If it's a good idea in the short-term, I've often found it works in the long-term too, although it is somewhat based on the premise that these workers are willing to come.
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Shortage of skilled drivers causes petrol station queues, while ONS says customers cannot buy all the food they want
Graham Watson's insight:
The Guardian's gone early with the first emotive mention of Christmas - suggesting that unless the government gets a grip of the lorry driver shortage, Christmas will be ruined. Quite how this is going to be done, given the relative inelasticity of HGV drivers is an interesting state of affairs.
Frankly, to paraphrase Oscar Wilde "to have ruined one Christmas may be regarded as a misfortune; to ruin two looks like carelessness.”
https://www.gobalcurrencyint.net We use latest technology to produce our notes so that it looks 100% identical to the real note. This thus implies all security features https://www.gobalcurrencyint.net present in the real notes are present in the note we make. Our team is made up of Quality IT technicians from Morocco, US, Russia, India, Korea and China etc We offer high quality counterfeit NOTES for all currencies. https://www.gobalcurrencyint.net
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Even as Covid restrictions are lifted, staff shortages and Brexit could yet undermine revival, says BDO
Graham Watson's insight:
It's a mixed picture in the UK economy, according to professional services group BDO - job creation in some sectors, staff shortages in other and the extent of the damage from Brexit not yet fully observable. Apart from those of us keeping our eyes on supermarket shelves - lemons one week, limes the next...
Richard Harpin says it should be made easier for EU bathroom fitters and kitchen installers to come to the UK.
Graham Watson's insight:
Another example of a labour market shortage, this time among skilled trades, with the boss of Checkatrade suggesting that there's a shortage of bathroom and kitchen fitters, bricklayers and carpenters.
The cause is all too self-evident: Brexit, and a large number of EU workers returning home. This could be Micro - in looking at how markets operate, or Macro - relating, as it does, to Britain's supply-side and productive capacity.
The founder of a Michelin-star restaurant says he had to reduce opening hours to manage shortages.
Graham Watson's insight:
Another example of a labour shortage in hospitality affecting the way a business is run, with the twin impacts of COVID and Brexit putting high quality staff at a premium for this London restauranteur.
Analysis: As the UK’s post-lockdown hospitality sector struggles to find staff, one obvious solution presents itself
Graham Watson's insight:
Larry Elliott states a simple economic principle: if there's a shortage of workers, you'll have to raise wages.
Best example of it I've ever come across? At an Economics event run by an examination board, when the Principal Examiner admitted that they were short of examiners, only to be greeted by the same suggestion. Indeed, it's entertaining that, as far as I'm aware, examiners are all paid a standard rate, irrespective of market conditions.
Some venues may have to limit their opening hours after more than one in ten hospitality workers left the sector.
Graham Watson's insight:
A tale of woe. And Brexit. And the pandemic.
It seems that the hospitality sector is going to face labour shortages as 10% of its workforce have left the sector. Can you think of other areas of the economy likely to experience the same phenomenon?
The tighter labour market is boosting wages for some staff, says HR trade body the CIPD.
Graham Watson's insight:
Evidence of an adverse effect of Brexit - labour shortages is being flagged up by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) who suggest that this will, in turn, drag wages up.
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