Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics
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Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics
A brief overview of relevant articles for IB and A-Level all relating to the UK economy
Curated by Graham Watson
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UK recession risk grows as higher interest rates weigh on firms | Economic growth (GDP) | The Guardian

UK recession risk grows as higher interest rates weigh on firms | Economic growth (GDP) | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Service sector and manufacturing output falls, with cost of living crisis also hitting businesses
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest raft of economic data implies that the economy's slowing: service sector and manufacturing output have both fallen as the cost of living crisis bites. That said, retail sales were up slightly, so it's difficult to read the runes, but overall sentiment seems to be negative.  

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UK factory output tumbles to lowest level in nearly three years | Economics | The Guardian

UK factory output tumbles to lowest level in nearly three years | Economics | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
CBI data showing slowdown in activity is latest sign Bank interest rate rises are slowing economy
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest CBI snapshot of manufacturing data, revealing that factory output is at its lowest level for 3 years, implies that the UK economy is slowing, which might have good implications for inflation to some degree but at the expense of economic growth and unemployment. Are we entering a slowdown likely to precede a recession or is the Guardian hoping that this is the case. 

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UK factory output ‘falling at fastest rate in more than two years’ | Manufacturing sector | The Guardian

UK factory output ‘falling at fastest rate in more than two years’ | Manufacturing sector | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
CBI calls for support on energy costs as country will be in recession throughout much of 2023
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest CBI survey suggests that manufacturing output is falling, and calls for concrete plans to support on energy costs. If you want a clearer indication that the country is about to enter a sustained recession, this is it. The CBI has identified that high inflation is going to act as a drag on consumer spending in the short-term and thereafter the withdrawal of government support for energy bills and then higher unemployment will play their part in keeping expenditure, and by definition, economic growth low throughout 2023.

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We think of Britain as a world-beating economy. We would be better off thinking about Taiwan | Larry Elliott | The Guardian

We think of Britain as a world-beating economy. We would be better off thinking about Taiwan | Larry Elliott | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Instead of living with this delusion, leaders should examine emerging market economies and try to emulate their success, says Guardian economics editor Larry Elliott
Graham Watson's insight:

Larry Elliott argues that we should reflect upon what the last few weeks and think about plotting a realistic way forward. His view is that we be honest about our assessments of the state of the UK economy, riddled as it is with exactly the same structural problems that it faced when I started my undergraduate degree 30 years ago.

 

Equally, we need to look at what we can learn from other - faster growing economies - such as Taiwan - and replicating its commitment to education and the development of world-beating sectors of industry. 

 

Unfortunately, looming austerity means that there's little immediate prospect of the government kickstarting this process - and that to should lead us to ask why? Why is it that other economies have spent their oil revenues more wisely that we have?

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Pro-Brexit UK regions more dependent on EU for exports, report finds | Brexit | The Guardian

Pro-Brexit UK regions more dependent on EU for exports, report finds | Brexit | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Research also reveals EU remains ‘overwhelmingly dominant’ destination for UK manufacturing exports
Graham Watson's insight:

An article that proves that on one well-known occasion, turkeys do vote for Christmas. It seems that the most pro-Brexit regions are most heavily dependent upon the EU as a market for their exports, and that the EU is still the dominant destination of UK manufacturing exports. 

 

Who would have thought it? 

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UK business growth hits 11-month low as Omicron chills service sector | Economics | The Guardian

UK business growth hits 11-month low as Omicron chills service sector | Economics | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Hospitality, leisure and travel businesses feel impact of Covid variant in January
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest PMI data paints a mixed picture of the UK recovery, with hospitality, leisure and travel all suffering but manufacturing seemingly overcoming some of the supply-side bottlenecks that have held it back. We're not out of the woods yet, it would seem.

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UK factories struggle to meet record demand as supply issues continue | Manufacturing sector | The Guardian

UK factories struggle to meet record demand as supply issues continue | Manufacturing sector | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
CBI snapshot finds firms running down stocks to meet order books and raising concerns about inflation
Graham Watson's insight:

It seems as though the latest CBI data hints at inflation - firms are destocking, and some might be in danger of stocking out to meet high levels of demand and this hints at the very real possibility of inflation, as a result of cost-push factors.

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Scooped by Graham Watson
Scoop.it!

UK manufacturing growth at 30-year high, says PMI survey

UK manufacturing growth at 30-year high, says PMI survey | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The easing of lockdown rules unleashes pent-up demand, but some suppliers are struggling to keep up.
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest manufacturing data suggests an unprecedented pick-up in demand, and the release of an awful lot of pent-up demand in the economy as lockdown ends, with some sectors "struggling to keep up". 

 

Although the latest PMI data are healthy in the extreme, I wonder what that latter phrase might imply?  

No comment yet.
Scooped by Graham Watson
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Private sector growth at eight-year high as UK retail sales jump | Economic recovery | The Guardian

Private sector growth at eight-year high as UK retail sales jump | Economic recovery | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Services and manufacturing show April boom, prompting hopes of spring spurt in activity
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest data from the IHS/Markit Purchasing Managers' Index has seen activity surge in April, prompting a reading of 60.0 with strong performances from both manufacturing and the services sector. 

 

The recovery, it seems, is already under way.

No comment yet.
Scooped by Graham Watson
Scoop.it!

UK factory production slows amid Brexit and Covid disruption | Business | The Guardian

UK factory production slows amid Brexit and Covid disruption | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Almost 60% of manufacturers report longer delivery times from suppliers, holding back output
Graham Watson's insight:

It seems that Brexit disruption is having an effect upon the nation's supply chain, with 60% of manufacturers reporting longer delivery times and factory production slowing as a result. If these are more than teething problems, they will act as a drag on future growth rates. 

No comment yet.
Scooped by Graham Watson
Scoop.it!

Fears of UK double-dip recession rise as activity slumps in Covid-19 lockdown | Business | The Guardian

Fears of UK double-dip recession rise as activity slumps in Covid-19 lockdown | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Service sector hit hard by closure of shops and restaurants as manufacturing also suffers
Graham Watson's insight:

It seems as though a double-dip recession is inevitable, with the latest service sector data, as well as various PMI indices, suggesting that the latest lockdown has triggered negative growth. 

 

No surprise there - but perhaps we need to be more aware of the distributional consequences of this. 

No comment yet.
Scooped by Graham Watson
Scoop.it!

Red wall areas facing Brexit job shock even under a deal – report | Brexit | The Guardian

Red wall areas facing Brexit job shock even under a deal – report | Brexit | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Voters who switched to Tories could easily swing back if factory jobs go, says report
Graham Watson's insight:

In perhaps the day's most shocking news, some of those areas that voted Conservative in the last election - the so-called 'Red Wall' areas of the manufacturing North - are likely to see job losses from Brexit - and that's even with a Brexit deal.

 

A surprising example of a case where turkeys appear to have voted for Christmas. 

No comment yet.
Scooped by Graham Watson
Scoop.it!

No-deal Brexit would hit 'red wall' areas hard, manufacturers warn | Brexit | The Guardian

No-deal Brexit would hit 'red wall' areas hard, manufacturers warn | Brexit | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
No-deal Brexit would hit 'red wall' areas hard, manufacturers warn | Brexit | The Guardian
Graham Watson's insight:

You heard it here first - Brexit is going to have the most marked effect on traditional manufacturing areas of the North and Midlands, interestingly, exactly those areas that voted Conservative in the last election. 

 

Apparently, on top of the impact of coronavirus and Brexit, these regions have closer links with the EU and most to lose from no deal Brexit. And as a result, the accompanying negative multiplier effects are likely to be more pronounced in these regions. 

 

Do turkeys vote for Christmas? It would seem that, occasionally, they do.  

No comment yet.
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Scoop.it!

UK manufacturers cut hiring plans amid ‘sharp slowdown’, survey finds | Manufacturing sector | The Guardian

UK manufacturers cut hiring plans amid ‘sharp slowdown’, survey finds | Manufacturing sector | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Firms preparing for difficult year as ‘potent cocktail’ of difficulties takes hold, says industry lobby group
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest forecast from Make UK makes for grim reading: growth forecast to be down by 0.5% and manufacturing firms putting hiring on hold. Is a recession on the way?  

MEDICALPHARMACY's curator insight, September 25, 2023 11:39 AM

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Why does Britain have the worst inflation in the G7? - BBC Newsnight

The Bank of England is watching UK inflation carefully, and the latest official figures show that inflation slowed in April by less than expected to 8.7%.

Britain’s ‘core inflation’ - a measure which doesn’t include volatile components such as energy and food - is the highest of the G7 countries at 6.8% and is going in the wrong direction.

Nationwide building society has warned that rises in mortgage interest rates - closely tied to increases in the Bank of England’s rate that has been raised to try and control inflation - could hit the housing market.

So why is inflation in the UK so stubborn compared to similar countries? Newsnight’s Economics Editor Ben Chu reports.

Graham Watson's insight:

A Newsnight clip looking at why British inflation exceeds those of any other G7 country, with core inflation still 6.8% and still rising. So what factors contribute to this - and are they UK specific? 

 

Well, farming in the UK is necessarily limited by scale, and the cost of importing has undoubtedly risen post-Brexit. The cost of manufacturing, particularly in labour-intensive sectors previously  dependent upon migrant workers, is up as is the price of services, notably insurance. 

 

Is Britain back to being the 'sick old man of Europe'? It currently looks like it. Not least because of the lasting effects of COVID on the British workforce.   

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Fears for UK economy after manufacturing sector shrinks by 4% | Manufacturing sector | The Guardian

Fears for UK economy after manufacturing sector shrinks by 4% | Manufacturing sector | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Industry body Make UK says ‘no sugar-coating poor outlook’ for next year and ‘possibly beyond’
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest analysis of the UK's manufacturing sector is struggling: the latest Make UK/BDO survey of the sector has announced that it has shrunk by 4% this year, and it is forecast to shrink by 3.2% in 2023. 

 

Apart from the problems with the current environment, industry groups are concerned about a lack of clarity about the long-term future of the sector in the absence of a clear government plan for industry. And this week's interest rate decision is going to mean further pain for the sector. 

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UK factory growth slows to weakest in 18 months as business optimism falls | Manufacturing sector | The Guardian

UK factory growth slows to weakest in 18 months as business optimism falls | Manufacturing sector | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Supply bottlenecks, cost pressures and softer demand hit British industry
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Labour vows to reverse decline in UK manufacturing | Labour | The Guardian

Labour vows to reverse decline in UK manufacturing | Labour | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Keir Starmer blames Tory failures as new figures show manufacturing jobs have fallen by 93,000 since 2009
Graham Watson's insight:

I love this sort of promise - it's political rather than economic. The significance of the Labour Party attempting to reconnect with its roots in so-called Red Wall constituencies, outweighs the economic reality that manufacturing job losses in the UK are largely driven by external factors, notably trade - although Brexit will also have played a part. 

 

And yes, 93,000 manufacturing jobs is a lot - but what is the net position since 2009, and what has happened to the incomes of those who've left manufacturing. There are lots of imponderables here and little in the way of policy detail.

No comment yet.
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Scoop.it!

Brexit and Covid hit demand for exports from UK factories | Manufacturing data | The Guardian

Brexit and Covid hit demand for exports from UK factories | Manufacturing data | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Supply chain disruption and staff shortages held back economy in December
Graham Watson's insight:

It's remarkable how you can spin a story via the headline - if you actually read this Guardian piece you'll note that "The IHS Markit/Cips manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 57.9 in December" with any number above 50 implying an expectation of increased economic activity. And, yes, it might be marginally lower than the previous month but I'll wager the Telegraph's coverage of the same data will tell a different story. 

No comment yet.
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UK businesses pushed to raise prices amid record jump in costs | Economics | The Guardian

UK businesses pushed to raise prices amid record jump in costs | Economics | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Analysts say reports of high demand and jobs growth could give green light for interest rate increase
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest IHS Markit data suggests that businesses are looking likely to pass on rising costs to consumers. According to manufacturers, the rate at which they passed on increased costs to consumers was at its highest rate for 20 years. The service sector, however, was unable to pass on cost increases because of consumer resistance.

 

Factor in some evidence suggesting strong demand and jobs growth, and an interest rate rise in December becomes more likely, although the prospect of higher costs of living and taxation may eat into demand in 2022. 

divine's curator insight, December 20, 2021 4:06 AM

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ZAR - Rand
CHF - Swiss Franc
CNY - Chinese Yuan Renminbi
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THB - Thai Baht
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SAR - Saudi Arabian Riyal
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Scooped by Graham Watson
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UK factory output rebounds after increase in demand | Manufacturing data | The Guardian

UK factory output rebounds after increase in demand | Manufacturing data | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Manufacturers upbeat as May figures show output grew at fastest rate since December 2018
Graham Watson's insight:

More evidence of a recovery...this time in the manufacturing sector...

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UK manufacturers record sharpest rise in optimism since 1973 as Covid recedes | Manufacturing sector | The Guardian

UK manufacturers record sharpest rise in optimism since 1973 as Covid recedes | Manufacturing sector | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
CBI poll of 288 leading companies finds firms plan to hire at fastest rate in nearly 50 years
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest CBI data suggests a remarkable pick up in business confidence in the manufacturing sector - the highest since 1973 which, I assume, was in some way related to my birth. 

 

However, this is good news for future growth - so it seems as though the recovery is on the way. 

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UK unemployment rate continues to rise

UK unemployment rate continues to rise | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The rate rose to 5% in the three months to November, as coronavirus continued to hit the jobs market.
Graham Watson's insight:

Going up: it seems that unemployment has started to rise, with the latest data seeing it reach 5% in the three months until November. I suspect this won't be the end of the rise - with the hospitality, manufacturing and retail sectors still struggling, and, the government to unwind the furlough scheme at some point. 

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Will the UK experience a double-dip recession in 2021? Almost certainly | Business | The Guardian

Will the UK experience a double-dip recession in 2021? Almost certainly | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
A recession is coming but damage this time from ‘artificial hibernation by government diktat’ may prove shortlived, say economists
Graham Watson's insight:

Larry Elliott highlights the fact that there's a double-dip recession on the way, although economists believe that the second dip is going to be shallower because there has been less of a reduction in manufacturing and construction than in the first lockdown. 

 

Indeed, it's believed that the first quarter will see a 4.5% decline, but the next quarter will see a 9% recovery. We shall see...

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Manufacturers slash investment as bailout scheme 'gathers dust' | Business | The Guardian

Manufacturers slash investment as bailout scheme 'gathers dust' | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Labour says Treasury’s Project Birch is failing sector, with only one firm helped out so far
Graham Watson's insight:

The spectre of government failure looms, with the government's Project Birch scheme for Britain's manufacturers having only been taken up by one firm. 

 

So much for supporting the sector through the coronavirus pandemic.

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