It seems as though the Bank of England is inching towards interest rate cuts, even though today's decision sees rates held. However encouraging data saw two members of the MPC vote for rate cuts, and seven to hold them constant.

Either way, it seems as though monetary loosening is on the way.

Wegovy Semaglutide's curator insight, May 21, 6:06 AM

Aeropuerto Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas
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Economy

Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics

A brief overview of relevant articles for IB and A-Level all relating to the UK economy

Curated by Graham Watson

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Falling UK inflation not leading to rise in spending, report finds | Consumer spending | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - Today, 2:17 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Barclaycard's survey of consumer spending always makes for interesting reading and this one is no different, highlighting, as it does, the fact that even as inflation has started to fall, consumer spending hasn't picked up.

They reckon that a number of factors account for subdued spending, not least rising Council Tax bills and the higher cost of mobile phones and broadband access.

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Immigration must be matched with investment in UK infrastructure to ease pressures | Larry Elliott | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - June 3, 2:27 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Larry Elliott makes the point that since 2010, there's been net inwards migration of nearly 4m people, something that would sound absurd if it were a pre-election pledge today.

However, inward migration hasn't boosted per capita GDP as you might expect it to. So why?

Larry Elliott reckons that it's a lack of infrastructure that has meant that has resulted in this and that if we are to continue to accept large numbers of immigrants we will need to invest in the infrastructure, not least in housing.

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Tories pledge £20m each of levelling-up funds to 30 more towns | General election 2024 | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - June 1, 4:31 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Crikey! It's a bad day for the government when it has to reheat policies that, I suspect, most people have already written off as ineffectual. Even worse, you are reduced to relying on cracking down on tax avoidance - again - to fund these pledges.

However, there we are: more levelling up, funded by cracking down on tax avoidance that you've avoided doing for the previous 14 years. Believe it, if you like. But don't hold your breath.

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From www.bbc.co.uk - May 31, 10:02 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has called for the next government to focus on boosting growth via increased productivity with a specific focus on boosting living standards. Their research suggests that in the UK, there's been exceptionally slow growth of median and working-age incomes in the UK relative to the US and Germany.

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Reality check: can Treasury afford pledge to raise tax-free pension allowance? | Pensions | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - May 29, 5:21 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The Guardian looks at yesterday's Conservative pledge to raise the tax-free pension allowance for pensioners. It replays many of the arguments that I advanced yesterday - it's simply the reversal of a policy that the Conservatives themselves brought in, and the idea of funding it via an increased clampdown on tax avoidance is equally risible.

But instead of me, it's people with genuine credentials who make the case.

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Minister says Tories will pay for pensions policy by clamping down on tax avoidance | Conservatives | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - May 28, 9:11 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Today's Conservative pledge to reduce the tax liability of pensioners is work of a peculiar type of genius. In the first place, its' the reversal of a policy previously put in place by the Conservatives in the 2010s.

Additionally, the notion that it's going to be funded by clamping down on tax avoidance is equally risible. If it's that easy to find an extra £6bn, why hasn't the government done it already. So, aren't the issues more about why the government hasn't clamped down on tax avoidance and evasion before, never mind the equity issues involved in 'bribing' pensioners.

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From www.bbc.co.uk - May 28, 8:53 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

More evidence that the rate of increase of shop prices has reverted back to normal with the British Retail Consortium suggesting that shop prices only rose by 0.6% in April and food price inflation also fell to 3.2% last month.

Goodish news for inflation.

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From www.theguardian.com - May 26, 4:52 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

No prizes for guessing what William Keegan's written about in today's Observer. Brexit.

However, for all its absence from the General Election campaign, he's not wrong. Britain would gain from rejoining the EU.

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Jeremy Hunt hints Tories would cut taxes for higher earners if re-elected | Tax and spending | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - May 26, 4:45 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

It seems as though the Conservatives are, at some point, looking to lower taxes should they win the next election, especially on higher earners. However, Labour's Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has dismissed the move and made her own pitch to be best-placed to run the economy.

prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment, June 2, 11:18 PM

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From www.theguardian.com - May 24, 10:22 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Larry Elliott outlines five key dates for the election diary, with key bits of economic data being released in the next six weeks, including economic growth, inflation and unemployment data and another interest rate decision.

And whilst the consensus is that the economy is going to be picking up, will this come sound enough or have people already made their minds up.

prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment, June 3, 12:52 AM

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Things can only get better? For Sunak and the UK economy, this might be as good as it gets | Economic growth (GDP) | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - May 23, 2:33 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Larry Elliott wonders why the government have called a General Election, and thinks that it might be because this is as good as it gets for the government, even though growth remains moribund, and inflation sticky. You'd like to think things will get better; it might not.

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From www.theguardian.com - May 22, 9:41 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

A little look at what's up and what's down in price in the last 12 months. The sharpest rise in prices? Olive oil? The sharpest fall? Gas, down by 37.5%.

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At a festival for the super-rich, the argument for higher taxes couldn’t have been clearer | Polly Toynbee | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - May 22, 4:30 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Polemic, yes, but perhaps the better for that.

Should the super-rich be paying more in tax? And if this becomes a realistic prospect, how many of them will leave the UK or find ever more creative ways to avoid paying tax? And should we care?

I'm not going to comment - I think regular readers of my board know my views on this sort of thing. Is being super-rich the result of hard work or almost entirely to do with serendipity?

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From www.bbc.co.uk - June 3, 9:56 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

This could go on a number of boards but I've put it here because the UK seems to be in a similar situation as regards housing, and this Canadian solution is interesting.

In short, the Canadian government have sought to intervene to encourage the building of smaller houses of multiple occupancy instead of larger homes and apartments. Would it work here?

I don't have an answer but it seems to be a way of getting people on the housing ladder.

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Starmer must introduce wealth tax after Labour wins election, top Blair aide says | Labour | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - June 2, 4:28 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Another call for a wealth tax - with a leading Blairite advisor suggesting that any incoming Labour government needs to introduce a wealth tax on the super-rich.

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From www.theguardian.com - May 31, 10:23 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Phillip Inman looks at the current state of public finances and seems to accept that its likely that neither the Conservatives or Labour are going to be in a position to cut taxes post-election. Instead, they're effectively competing to convince voters who will increase taxes the least.

This explainer looks at the options facing the parties with regard to a raft of taxes.

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From www.bbc.co.uk - May 30, 4:17 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The British Chambers of Commerce have argued for a return to a more stable trading environment and closer relations with our trading partners in the EU. It would seem that there are, self-evidently, costs of Brexit. It's fascinating, though, to see that they stop short of calling for a reversal of Brexit.

I won't though. Brexit has been a disaster, but that's what you get when you allow a campaign based on lies to appeal to an audience of idiots.

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From www.youtube.com - May 29, 5:14 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

I've only just stumbled on this; it's a good little primer on why a little bit of inflation is a good thing. There's some straightforward explanations here - looking at the importance of real wages keeping pace with inflation - and the benefits of low, stable inflation.

The only downside? The DCU adverts

prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment, June 2, 11:17 PM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - May 28, 8:58 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The economy is today's election battleground and the Labour Party have received support from a number of prominent business leaders and promised that their manifesto pledges are all fully-funded.

The Prime Minister claims that their pledges will cost £2,000 per family, which sounds a little hollow from the party responsible for Brexit and recent tax increases, and which is only now pledging to lower taxes for pensioners ahead of everyone else.

The choice, ultimately, is that of the electorate. And 2016 says something about turkeys voting for Christmas.

prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment, May 30, 9:10 AM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - May 28, 4:12 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Economic policymaking in the national interest or a pre-Election bribe? You decide.

For my part, I'll just suggest it's the most advantaged generation of electors - free healthcare/university education, biggest beneficiaries of EU membership and housing policy - getting even more from the government. Ironically, it seems that a Conservative government is now committed to the extension of socialist protections of a specific group to try and keep themselves in power.

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‘People tell me they’re not ready to work’: how long-term sickness blighted a town | Economics | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - May 26, 4:48 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

This Observer piece looks at the town of Hastings, as a microcosm of the wider issue of economic inactivity, and the number of people who have opted out of the labour market in the post-coronavirus era.

The result of this has been a decline in the size of the working population which, of course, has wider macroeconomic implications.

prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment, June 2, 10:20 PM

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From www.bbc.co.uk - May 26, 4:35 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) are certain that the state of public finances is such that, irrespective of whoever wins the election, there are tough choices to be made in the form of tax increases or spending cuts. As a result, they are calling on both parties to be transparent in their election campaigns, and realistic in the pledges that they make to the electorate.

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From www.bbc.co.uk - May 24, 9:52 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

April's bad weather has had a marked effect on retail sales, with sales volumes falling by 2.3%, markedly more than most analysts expected. Curiously, even online sales fell by over 1% and fewer trips being taken meant that fuel sales were also down by nearly 5% in April.

prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment, June 2, 11:18 PM

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Jeremy Hunt’s tax cut plans face setback as government borrowing tops £20bn | Budget deficit | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it

From www.theguardian.com - May 23, 2:15 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Almost overlooked in the news that we've got a General Election at the start of July, were the latest public finance figures which rather confirmed the IMF's gloomy view. The budget deficit increased by £1.5bn last year, pushing government borrowing above £20bn last month and keeping government debt at 97.9% of GDP.

And this means that the Chancellor wouldn't have had any realistic chance of offering pre-election sweeteners, and might have been one of the things that precipitated the announcement of the 4 July election.

prameswariursula@gmail.com's comment, June 2, 11:19 PM

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From www.theguardian.com - May 22, 9:38 AM

Graham Watson's insight:

Larry Elliott drills down into today's inflation figure, noting that although it's fallen to 2.3% - largely driven by falling energy prices - there are still two main pockets of concern.

Core inflation remains high - it's down from 4.2% to 3.9% - and service sector inflation has hardly budged - falling marginally from 6% to 5.9% - both of which might deter immediate interest rate cuts.

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Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics

Falling UK inflation not leading to rise in spending, report finds | Consumer spending | The Guardian

Immigration must be matched with investment in UK infrastructure to ease pressures | Larry Elliott | The Guardian

Tories pledge £20m each of levelling-up funds to 30 more towns | General election 2024 | The Guardian

Calls to boost households' living standards

Reality check: can Treasury afford pledge to raise tax-free pension allowance? | Pensions | The Guardian

Minister says Tories will pay for pensions policy by clamping down on tax avoidance | Conservatives | The Guardian

Shop price rises back to 'normal', British Retail Consortium says

Once Britain is back in the EU, things can only get better | William Keegan | The Guardian

Jeremy Hunt hints Tories would cut taxes for higher earners if re-elected | Tax and spending | The Guardian

Five pieces of economic news that could affect UK election result | Economics | The Guardian

Things can only get better? For Sunak and the UK economy, this might be as good as it gets | Economic growth (GDP) | The Guardian

UK inflation: which goods and services have changed most in price? | Inflation | The Guardian

At a festival for the super-rich, the argument for higher taxes couldn’t have been clearer | Polly Toynbee | The Guardian

Could a housing revolution transform Canadian cities?

Starmer must introduce wealth tax after Labour wins election, top Blair aide says | Labour | The Guardian

Fiscal tussle: who will win the battle to put up taxes the least? | Tax and spending | The Guardian

BCC: Choppy times for firms must end, says lobby group

Why can’t prices just stay the same?

Rachel Reeves promises no additional tax rises to fund spending

General election: Tories announce 'Triple Lock Plus' pension allowance

‘People tell me they’re not ready to work’: how long-term sickness blighted a town | Economics | The Guardian

Finances a 'dark cloud' hanging over election campaign, says IFS

Shop sales slump in April hit by heavy rain

Jeremy Hunt’s tax cut plans face setback as government borrowing tops £20bn | Budget deficit | The Guardian

Big drop in UK inflation rate disguises more disappointing details | Inflation | The Guardian