Virus World

In China, a key metric of epidemics called the serial interval shrank drastically soon after the new coronavirus’s arrival — a finding that underscores the success of China’s testing and isolation efforts. The serial interval is the average time between the onset of symptoms in a chain of people infected by a pathogen. Benjamin Cowling at the University of Hong Kong and his colleagues modelled the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in China and found that the serial interval plummeted from 7.8 days to 2.6 days over a 5-week period starting on 9 January (S. T. Ali et al. Science http://doi.org/gg5mpc; 2020).

The researchers say that early isolation of cases prevented transmission that would otherwise have occurred later in an infectious period, leading to fewer cases and slowing the spread of the virus. As a result, most of the remaining transmissions occurred either before infected people showed symptoms or early in the symptomatic phase, and the serial interval shrank. The authors suggest the serial interval distribution be used in real time to track the changing transmissibility of the virus.

Original study published in Science (July 21, 2020):

https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc9004

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs.

METHODS: We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published research articles and case investigation reports. We subjectively ranked the credibility of the data and performed analyses on both the full dataset (n = 28) and a subset of pairs with highest certainty in reporting (n = 18). In addition, we adjust for right truncation of the data as the epidemic is still in its growth phase.

RESULTS: Accounting for right truncation and analyzing all pairs, we estimated the median serial interval at 4.0 days (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.1, 4.9). Limiting our data to only the most certain pairs, the median serial interval was estimated at 4.6 days (95% CrI: 3.5, 5.9).

CONCLUSIONS: The serial interval of COVID-19 is close to or shorter than its median incubation period. This suggests that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset. The COVID-19 serial interval is also shorter than the serial interval of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), indicating that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias.

Published in Int. J. Infectious Diseases on Feb. 27, 2020:

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7.

We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus...