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Virus World provides a daily blog of the latest news in the Virology field and the COVID-19 pandemic. News on new antiviral drugs, vaccines, diagnostic tests, viral outbreaks, novel viruses and milestone discoveries are curated by expert virologists. Highlighted news include trending and most cited scientific articles in these fields with links to the original publications. Stay up-to-date with the most exciting discoveries in the virus world and the last therapies for COVID-19 without spending hours browsing news and scientific publications. Additional comments by experts on the topics are available in Linkedin (https://www.linkedin.com/in/juanlama/detail/recent-activity/)
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Estimates of Mortality by COVID-19 Largely Underestimated Where Disease is Spreading Fast

Estimates of Mortality by COVID-19 Largely Underestimated Where Disease is Spreading Fast | Virus World | Scoop.it

As of March 1, 2020, 79 968 patients in China and 7169 outside of China had tested positive for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Among Chinese patients, 2873 deaths had occurred, equivalent to a mortality rate of 3·6% (95% CI 3·5–3·7), while 104 deaths from COVID-19 had been reported outside of China (1·5% [1·2–1·7]). However, these mortality rate estimates are based on the number of deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases of infection, which is not representative of the actual death rate; patients who die on any given day were infected much earlier, and thus the denominator of the mortality rate should be the total number of patients infected at the same time as those who died. Notably, the full denominator remains unknown because asymptomatic cases or patients with very mild symptoms might not be tested and will not be identified.

 

The maximum incubation period is assumed to be up to 14 days, whereas the median time from onset of symptoms to intensive care unit (ICU) admission is around 10 days. Recently, WHO reported that the time between symptom onset and death ranged from about 2 weeks to 8 weeks.  We re-estimated mortality rates by dividing the number of deaths on a given day by the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection 14 days before. On this basis, using WHO data on the cumulative number of deaths to March 1, 2020, mortality rates would be 5·6% (95% CI 5·4–5·8) for China and 15·2% (12·5–17·9) outside of China. 

 

Global mortality rates over time using a 14-day delay estimate are shown in the figure, with a curve that levels off to a rate of 5·7% (5·5–5·9), converging with the current WHO estimates. Estimates will increase if a longer delay between onset of illness and death is considered. A recent time- delay adjusted estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20% in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.6 These findings show that the current figures might underestimate the potential threat of COVID-19 in symptomatic patients.

 

Published in The  Lancet Infectious Diseases (March 12, 2020):

https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30195-X

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Two New Ebola Treatments Dramatically Lower the Death Rate in a Trial

Two New Ebola Treatments Dramatically Lower the Death Rate in a Trial | Virus World | Scoop.it

A trial of four experimental Ebola treatments carried out in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been stopped early after two of them showed strong signs of being able to save patients’ lives. The preliminary results were reported this morning by Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) in Bethesda, Maryland, one of the partners in the study. The two treatments will now be made widely available and could help end the yearlong outbreak in the DRC, which has already killed more than 1800 people, scientists say.

 

The PALM trial (short for the Swahili expression pamoja tulinde maisha, which means “together save lives”) evaluated three Ebola antibody preparations and one antiviral drug in a randomized controlled trial conducted in the midst of the devastating outbreak, which has hit two provinces in the eastern DRC mired in violence. “Today, we have started a new chapter. From now on, we will no longer say that Ebola is not curable,” Jean-Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum, head of the DRC’s National Institute for Biomedical Research in Kinshasa, a partner in the trial, said at the press conference. “This advance will, in the future, help save thousands of lives.” (Muyembe, who was part of the team that discovered Ebola 43 years ago, took over command of the outbreak response in the DRC on 22 July.)

 

Still, the data on ZMapp were deemed good enough to use the drug as a control in future trials. In the PALM trial, three other trials were compared to ZMapp:

  • The monoclonal antibody mAb114, which has its roots in the 1995 Ebola outbreak in Kikwit, DRC. During that episode, Muyembe attempted to treat patients with a mixture of antibodies from Ebola survivors. Years later, researchers at NIAID isolated antibodies from those survivors; mAb114, which is now being developed with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics in Miami, Florida, was the most promising one.
  • REGN-EB3, a cocktail of three monoclonal antibodies developed by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals in Eastview, New York. The antibodies were generated by inoculating mice with “humanized” immune systems with the Ebola virus.
  • The antiviral drug remdesivir, produced by Gilead Sciences in Foster City, California.

 

The trial started in November 2018 in four Ebola treatment units in the communities of Beni, Butembo, Katwa, and Mangina, with the aim of enrolling 725 patients. On 9 August, an independent data and safety monitoring board reviewed data for 499 patients and found that REGN-EB3 was much better than ZMapp. Overall, 49% of patients receiving ZMapp—and 53% of those who received remdesivir—died, compared with only 29% of those on REGN-EB3. That difference was big enough to meet the predetermined criterion for stopping the trial early. In the group that received mAb114, mortality was 34%, a rate deemed close enough to that of the Regeneron cocktail that its use should continue.  In the 41% of trial participants who sought treatment early after infection and had lower levels of Ebola virus in their blood, the two new treatments had astonishing success: Mortality plummeted to 6% in the Regeneron antibody group and to 11% with mAb114. (With ZMapp and remdesivir, mortality rates in people with low viral load were 24% and 33%, respectively.) There is far less hope for patients with a high viral load, however: Even with the best treatment, REGN-EB3, their death rate was 60%.

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