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The world is in uncharted waters for the 2020 respiratory virus season. For the first time in modern history, the Northern Hemisphere faces the prospect of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and a simultaneous epidemic of seasonal influenza. Each causes life-threatening illness and death, especially in older adults, people with chronic diseases, and other vulnerable populations. How can we prepare for this convergence?
The timing and severity of a COVID-19 wave in the fall and winter are uncertain, but past experiences with the 1918 and 1957 influenza pandemics point to the possibility of a resurgence. Almost nothing is known about the interaction of influenza virus and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2, the cause of COVID-19) within individuals. Does coinfection increase the risk of severe illness or amplify virus shedding? Few coinfections have been reported from China during the early phase of the pandemic. The Southern Hemisphere influenza season is just beginning, and it may provide some clues as to what can be expected in the Northern Hemisphere later this year.
Much of the population remains susceptible to SARS-CoV-2, and the stress on hospitals will be greatest if the COVID-19 and influenza epidemics overlap and peak around the same time. It is possible that the number of individuals infected with each virus will peak at different times, reducing the peak demand for hospital beds. If a surge in COVID-19 cases occurs this fall, tightening mitigation strategies will be necessary. Social distancing and stay-at-home orders are socially and economically disruptive, but can reduce demand on hospitals and protect vulnerable populations. They will also reduce transmission of other respiratory viruses, including influenza and respiratory syncytial virus. Supplies of personal protective equipment must sufficiently meet the projected demand of a severe influenza season along with COVID-19....
Published in Science (June 12, 2020):
