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Background: Post-acute sequelae of COVID, termed “Long COVID”, is an emerging chronic illness potentially affecting ~10% of those with COVID-19. We sought to determine if outpatient treatment with metformin, ivermectin, or fluvoxamine could prevent Long COVID.
Methods: COVID-OUT (NCT04510194) was a decentralized, multi-site trial in the United States testing three medications (metformin, ivermectin, fluvoxamine) using a 2x3 parallel treatment factorial randomized assignment to efficiently share placebo controls. Participants, investigators, care providers, and outcomes assessors were masked to randomized treatment assignment. Inclusion criteria included: age 30 to 85 years with overweight or obesity, symptoms <7 days, enrolled within <=3 days of documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. Long COVID diagnosis from a medical provider was a pre-specified secondary outcome assessed by monthly surveys through 300 days after randomization and confirmed in medical records.
Findings: Of 1323 randomized trial participants, 1125 consented for long-term follow up, and 95.1% completed >9 months of follow up. The median age was 45 years (IQR, 37 to 54), and 56% were female (7% pregnant). The median BMI was 30 kg/m2 (IQR, 27 to 34). Overall, 8.4% reported a medical provider diagnosed them with Long COVID; cumulative incidence: 6.3% with metformin and 10.6% with matched placebo. The hazard ratio (HR) for metformin preventing Long COVID was 0.58 (95%CI, 0.38 to 0.88; P=0·009) versus placebo. The metformin effect was consistent across subgroups, including viral variants. When metformin was started within <4 days of symptom onset, the HR for Long COVID was 0.37 (95%CI, 0.15 to 0.95). No statistical difference in Long COVID occurred in those randomized to either ivermectin (HR=0.99; 95%CI, 0.59 to 1.64) or fluvoxamine (HR=1.36; 95%CI, 0.78 to 2.34).
Interpretations: A 42% relative decrease and 4.3% absolute decrease in the Long COVID incidence occurred in participants who received early outpatient COVID-19 treatment with metformin compared to exact-matching placebo.
Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04510194.
Preprint available at the Lancet (March 6, 2023):
